We have already seen how the lockoff premium causes hundreds of thousands more points to be created out of thin air, not balanced by a reduction anywhere else.
User Mustinjourney on the DISboards has published an interesting calculation on how the lockoff premium impacts Villas at the Grand Floridian (VGF).
This resort doesn't have any dedicated studio or one bedroom (1BR) vacation homes, it has instead both dedicated and lock-off 2 bedrooms (2BR). The lockoff Vacation Homes can be booked separately as a studios and as 1BR or as a 2BR. Every time a member books a studio, one lockoff 2BR is taken off the available inventory and 1BR remains available to be booked.
This table shows how DVC has calculated the new point charts.
If no studio is booked and all 2BR are booked as 2BR, then the chart shows how there is practically no difference between the 2019 and 2020 point charts*.
This chart also shows that at VGF the 2BR cost have been reduced by increasing the cost of the Grand Villas. No change in studios and 1BR has been considered in the re-balancing.
But at the Grand Floridian, as at all DVC resorts, studios are the most common category of room to be booked. They literaly fly off the shelves. In period of very high demand, like the first two weeks of December, it is difficult to book a studio even 11 months before when reservations open for owners only.
This post on the DISboards, shows the result of the huge monitoring effort by users Skier_pete and Bing Showei, who tracked availability at all resorts for studio, 1BR and 2BR (only at VGF). As you can see, studios are fully booked way before 2BR. They rarely reach 7 months before the reservations open for all DVC members. 2BR instead often are available after the 7 months mark and some availability can be found at 5 months part of the year.
Since there are no dedicated studio, this means that 2BR lockoff are mostly booked as studio+1BR, while the remaining availability is only for dedicated 2BR.
This post also shows that dedicated 2BR are by far more popular then lockoff 2BR among people who book 2BR. So while a few lockoff 2BR might be booked while still available, it is reasonable to assume those are the minority of bookings. We don't have the real data that only DVCMC has (and doesn't share), but it's safe to assume that between 70% and 90% of the 2BR available are locked off into studio+1BR bookings.
As an extreme example, what happens because of the lockoff premium if ALL lockoff Vacation Homes are booked as studio + 1BR?
In this table, the points associated to the 2BR Vacation Homes come only from dedicated rooms. As we can see, in this extreme scenario, 75,333 more points are needed to book the whole resort with the 2020 point chart compared with the 2019 one. A 2.9% increase.
Even if just 70% of the rooms are locked off, we're talking about more than 52,000 points created out of thin air. Those points are not balanced anywhere else and members will see the value of their points diminish: with the same amount of points, on average they'll be able to book fewer nights every year.
We ask DVCMC: how can this be beneficial to owners of Villas at the Grand Floridian?
* = there is a variability from year to year on how many week days and weekends fall in each season. For this reason, when comparing different point charts, the POS says that a "Base Year" has to be used. We do not know which one is the Base Year used by DVC, so for the sake of this post, 2019 has been used. Using a different Base Year might bring slightly different results, but not something that would alter our conclusions.
We thank Mustinjourney for letting us use his charts for this post.